Market Info

Chancellor’s Spring Statement is at 12.30pm. UK economic forecasts could be upgraded. Watch also US CPI for clues on interest rates.

13/03/2018 | OzForex

Tuesday 13 March

Great British Pound

The British Pound finished on Monday as the top performer of the day, just edging the Australian Dollar into second place on our one-day table. GBP/USD was initially knocked lower by a pretty downbeat set of UK credit card numbers from Visa which warned that the first quarter of 2018 was on track to be the “worst on record” and that spending by consumers had fallen in nine out the past 10 months. From a low just above USD 1.3840, however, the GBP was then boosted by talk of an agreement on a post-Brexit transition deal and GBP/USD hit 1.39 at the end of the London afternoon. Overnight in Asia it has slipped back a little and though trading ranges remain tight, the pound is actually lower against all the major currencies we follow closely here.

Speaking at the Institute of Directors in London, junior Brexit minister Robin Walker said, “We recognise how important it is to secure the deal on the implementation period as soon as possible. I want to stress that we are very close to a deal at this time.” Britain has said it will adhere to EU regulations for a time-limited period after it leaves the European Union in March 2019, and hopes the details of this transition, or implementation, period, will be finalised at a summit with the EU on March 22-24. Britain has said it expects the transition period to last around two years after its departure date, although the European Union has said it should end earlier, on December 31st 2020.

Thoughts turn today to the Chancellor of the Exchequer’s Spring Statement. There is the chance of a rare upgrade to UK economic forecasts after the incoming data over the past few months have shown the Office for Budget Responsibility was too pessimistic in its assumptions on UK productivity. There are no longer any changes to taxes announced in March as the UK tax year begins on April 6th and the Chancellor has said he prefers to make these announcements in the Autumn to give time for consultation on detailed implementation. The OBR’s numbers, then, will likely take centre-stage in this new set-piece event which, according the BBC will comprise just a brief 15-minute statement to MP’s at 12.30GMT.

US Dollar (USD)

GBP/USD expected range: 1.3790 – 1.3915

The US Dollar fell modestly on Monday; a day which brought no fresh incoming economic news and few further developments in the trade tariff saga. Its index against a basket of major currencies had ended last week around 89.70 and by close of business in New York it had slipped just a couple of tenths to 89.50. The USD was down against the GBP and EUR, as well as the Antipodeans, but finished up against the CAD. In stock markets, meantime, the DJIA managed to turn a 150-point gain into a 100-point loss by late afternoon in New York.

Even after last week’s employment report, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans said he wanted the US central bank to keep interest-rate increases on hold until after March to allow inflation a chance to rise and even exceed the Fed’s 2-percent target. “My own preference would be to wait a little bit longer… We could go midyear and all of a sudden see, ‘wow, inflation continues to move up towards 2 percent, I’m much more confident’ and we continue an upward gradual adjustment of the funds rate.” Evans told both CNBC and Bloomberg that the February jobs report was good news in that it showed more people entering the labor force, with the participation rate rising to a five-month high of 63 percent. But, with strong hiring and an unemployment rate of 4.1 percent, he had hoped that wage growth would be stronger. He also said he would rather wait at least until inflation data for March had been released before raising rates. The market doesn’t share Mr. Evans’ view on the timing of a rate hike. A 25bp move next Wednesday is priced at an 89% probability with a 73% chance of at least a further 2 more hikes by the end of December.