Market Info

After a strong Monday, GBP slips a little on EU advisor comments. EUR recovers despite Italian elections. USD steady after big stock market rally.

06/03/2018 | OzForex

Tuesday 06 March

Great British Pound

The British Pound had a good day on Monday, as an apparent truce between the warring factions of the Conservative party and some decent economic data brought a recently-rare combination of good news. As recently as last Thursday, GBP/USD hit a low point 1.3720; the lowest since January 12th (the day after the ECB first spoke about changing forward guidance). The pair rallied on Friday as the USD came under pressure and the GBP extended its gains on Monday to a five-day high around 1.3870. By close of business in New York, the GBP was at the top of our one-day performance table with gains of around three-tenths of a percent against most major currencies and more than one per cent against the CAD. Overnight, however, it has slipped back a little and stands in the USD 1.38’s.

Monday’s UK economic data were generally better than expected. The service sector PMI registered 54.5 in February, up from 53.0 in January, to signal the strongest rate of output growth for four months. Higher levels of business activity were attributed to the resilient economic backdrop and an associated upturn in new work. Markit noted that, “UK service providers experienced a modest rebound in business activity growth during February, supported by the fastest rise in new work since May 2017. The latest survey also pointed to stronger job creation across the service economy, with payroll numbers rising to the greatest extent for five months as firms sought to boost operating capacity in response to improved order books.”

On Theresa May’s speech, we said yesterday that, “the reaction of the EU will be more important than the routine criticisms from Opposition parties in Westminster.” The Guardian newspaper leads with the story that Stefaan de Rynck, the main adviser to the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, stressed that the rules of the single market required far more than her chief proposal – a mutual recognition of standards. In his speech, at a special LSE lecture in London last night, de Rynck said, “The EU has moved away in the wake of the financial crisis from mutual recognition of national standards to a centralised approach with a single EU rule book and common enforcement structures and single supervisory structures.” He also claimed EU businesses, faced by a choice, “are more concerned with maintaining the integrity of the EU single market than any loss of access to British markets.” Let’s see if the recent rally in the pound can shrug off these comments…

US Dollar (USD)

GBP/USD expected range: 1.3720 – 1.3910

The US Dollar had a very mixed day on Monday: down against a buoyant GBP, unchanged against the EUR but quite a bit higher against the friendless CAD. The day began with equity index futures extending Friday’s losses – something with often lends support to the USD – but in the New York afternoon, stock markets caught a bid and the DJIA moved from being almost 200 points down to 300 points up. The USD index against a basket of major currencies traded in a relatively narrow range from 89.55 to 89.80 and finished pretty much around the mid-point of this at 89.65. Overnight in Asia, it has eased back a little, largely due to a somewhat higher EUR/USD rate.

February’s ISM non-manufacturing index slipped very slightly from 59.9 to a still very strong 59.5; the 97th consecutive month of expansion in the service sector. Business activity rose 3 points to 62.8, whilst new orders rose 2.1 to 64.8 but employment fell 6.6 from an exceptionally high reading of 61.6 in January to 55.0 and prices paid fell 0.9 to 61.0. According to the ISM, 16 non-manufacturing industries reported growth and the majority of respondents continue to be positive about business conditions and the economy.

Although the Atlanta Fed updates its GDP forecast after the ISM manufacturing report, it doesn’t do so after the service sector index is published. Its next update will come on Wednesday after the international trade numbers are released. Currently, its forecast for Q1 growth is an annualized pace of 3.5%. Tuesday brings factory orders and durable goods numbers whilst New York Fed Chief Bill Dudley – who last week said that four rate hikes in 2018 would be ‘gradual’ - is scheduled to make a speech on the economy. All eyes elsewhere will be on the POTUS’ Twitter feed; a single tweet from Mr. Trump could easily move stocks and the US Dollar by one per cent in a matter of moments. The USD index opens this morning in Europe around 89.55.